Polish Media Texts

This is a translation of the original Polish article, which can be found here. The translation is unauthorised, and is provided for educational, informational and non-commercial purposes only'

How would the path to the enactment of the anti-abortion law look?

Anna Dąbrowska, Polityka

The Committee of Civil Initiatives "Stop Abortion" has implemented the necessary formal changes to its policy proposal. Marek Kuchciński [the marshal of Polish Sejm] finally registered the committee on the 7th of April. Previously, the marshall did not find in the justification of the bill the financial impact of the restriction of abortion, which is a necessary condition that must be met by each proposed law. In the rejected version of the project it is written only that it would save the national budget between 2.3m and 2.5m zloty. According to the committee’s calculations, such were the annual costs of abortions granted by the NFZ [the Polish state health fund]. When it comes to the costs of the statutory prohibition [of abortion], the committee wrote only that these “should be subject to analysis in the course of legislative work”. 

After the committee had been registered, pro-life organisations launched information campaigns and started to collect signatures, needing 100,000 of them. According to Polish law, the collection of the signatures cannot last longer than three months. The pro-lifers hoped that their committee could be registered almost immediately. On the 3rd of April, when a letter by bishops calling for the restriction of the abortion law was read out, the organisations were eager to collect signatures outside churches.  

The organisations’ discontent with the fact that the committee was not registered as quickly as they’d imagined was expressed in an open letter to the marshal. It reads: “Previous marshals, elected by parliamentary majorities unfavourable to the full protection of life, never made formal objections aimed at procedural obstruction of draft bills. From you – a representative of a parliamentary majority into whose programme is inscribed the protection of life from conception, the rejection of euthanasia and openness to citizens' legislative initiatives – we expect a favourable disposition towards such initiatives at least equivalent to your predecessors”. And even though it must have been unpleasant reading for Marshal Kucharski, he has not bent to this subtle yet moral blackmail, and the committee was obliged to implement the necessary changes to the project.  

This is already the fifth citizens' initiative bill submitted to the Sejm by pro-life organizations in the past few years. The fact that so far none of them was accused of not meeting the formal requirements, and Kuchciński's approach towards the bill, proves that Law and Justice (PiS) wants to delay debate on the matter. Currently the government is boasting about the implementation of the 500+ programme and does not want to open another battlefront.   

In the previous parliamentary term, five attempts were made to change the rules determining when the termination of pregnancy is possible – two of them aiming at liberalization and three at greater restriction.   

It is worth remembering that abortion in Poland is permitted in three cases: when the pregnancy threatens the woman's life, when there is the likelihood of serious and irreversible damage to the foetus and when there is reasonable suspicion that the pregnancy is the result of a criminal act, such as rape.

Second reading is inevitable       

Once the marshal registers the committee and it manages to collect 100,000 signatures that have been verified by the National Electoral Commission, the project will be submitted to the Sejm for a first reading. Pro-lifers will have the opportunity to present their bill in the Sejm in July at the earliest. In all likelihood, by this time the change in the rules of the Sejm – the so-called democratic package (currently being worked on by the Rules and Deputies’ Affairs Committee) – will have been passed, which will require every citizens’ initiative bill to be returned to committee for a second reading.  

Even if the democratic package is not passed, Law and Justice would not dare to reject the bill so quickly; however, they would certainly do everything to drag the matter through committee for as long as possible. Although the bill is only two pages of A4, Law and Justice will use its numerous parliamentary tools (infrequent convening of meetings, appointing experts, waiting for their opinions) to leave the issue to be dealt with by the committee for as long as possible. 

Who is for, and who is against?  

Passing this bill requires only a simple majority, something that Law and Justice posseses, albeit narrowly (with 234 MPs). It is worth remembering that in 2007, under the previous Kaczyński government, Marek Jurek tried to incorporate the protection of life from conception into the constitution. This requires a constitutional majority (269 votes), which the marshal of the Sejm failed to assemble. 

There is a possibility that the leader of Law and Justice will try to come up with some clever solution, such as deliberate absence of several party members, in order to reject the restrictive bill at the third reading. This, however, would require serious effort. Obviously, it is also possible to find pro-life supporters in other Polish parties, for instance Kukiz'15, the Polish People's Party (PSL) and Civic Platform (PO). Moreover, as mentioned by Szymon Ruman (deputy minister for digitization, former spokesman for Marek Jurek) in an interview for Rzeczpospolita, "simple parliamentary arithmetic suggests that, counting on the support of a decisive majority of PiS, majorities of Kukiz'15 and PSL, and 20-30 Civic Platform MPs, the legal protection of life from conception can be confirmed not only at the legislative level, but also the constitutional”.  

In order for the bill to be turned down, it would require as many as 44 members of Law and Justice and Kukiz'15 to vote against it or abstain. But this scenario assumes that the whole opposition votes against the bill. Officially, PO, Modern, and PSL are for the current abortion compromise. However, none of these parties will enforce the whip on such a vote, as it has already become a parliamentary custom to allow MPs to vote in accordance with their conscience in ethically controversial cases.     

Probable outcome: a ban, but not so restrictive   

The episcopate has made its appeal; the leader of Law and Justice has declared that perhaps all of the party’s MPs will vote for tightening the anti-abortion law; pro-life organisations will apply pressure and won’t abandon this issue. Thus, it is reasonable to assume that, sooner or later, some form of more restrictive anti-abortion law will be passed. Chairman Kaczyński  must now assess the pros and cons. Clearly tightening may turn out to be politically beneficial for PiS. It will cement its position on the right wing of the Polish political scene. 

Tightening the regulations will deliver a potentially deadly blow to those further to the right of PiS, who could count on the support of the church. However passing the bill in the form suggested by pro-life organisations is out of the question. Kaczyński cannot afford to further ignite the ongoing protests. 

That is why the bill is bound to undergo some major changes at the committee stage. This belief was expressed, albeit not openly, by some of the ruling party's MPs. A total ban on abortion is doubtful (Jarosław Gowin [current deputy prime minister] and those affiliated with him are against it), but Law and Justice is likely to ban eugenic abortion, that is in the case of severe fetal damage, such as Down syndrome. The law will still allow abortion in the case of a threat to the woman's health or life and pregnancies from rape. In September 2013, the Pro Foundation (Fundacja Pro – cofounder of the "Stop abortion" initiative committee) put forward a draft bill banning eugenic abortion; thus it should be satisfied, and this will probably be the new abortion compromise.

As the experts of the Institute of Public Affairs [a non-partisan think tank] point out, the latest anti-abortion bill has gained the declared support of the prime minister and the leader of the ruling party, which makes it stand out from the number of similar bills which have been put forward every couple of years since 1993. According to the IPA, it has already become a historic milestone as for the first time since 1990s Polish Catholic Church has officially renounced its support for so-called compromise, that is for the restrictive law of 1993.
 
 

Translated by: Janik Krzysztof Kominiak Dominik Klimkowicz Patryk Jawień Joanna